Sign inStart free

Sports intelligence, made legible

Contender turns NBA player-prop data into a transparent analysis you can inspect, challenge, save, and combine.

Start freeExplore the product

Projection. History. Matchup. Probability. Provenance.

A real replay, not a live pick

This historical analysis was generated as of game day, then graded against the stored box score. It missed, and that outcome remains visible.

Historical exampleGame Mar 15, 2026 · as of 12:00 UTC that dayHistorical example — replayed as of noon UTC on game day; not a live pick.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC vs MIN Timberwolves · Mar 15, 2026

Selection

Over 30.5

Points

Projection

36.0

+5.5 vs line

P(over)

86.6%

Heuristic, uncalibrated

Rating

5/5 · High

Last 10 games · PTS

ML + Rules (Random Forest)

010213141Jan 27 vs NOP · 36 min · 29 PTS · line 30.5 · loss29LJan 27Jan 29 @ MIN · 31 min · 30 PTS · line 30.5 · loss30LJan 29Feb 1 @ DEN · 33 min · 34 PTS · line 30.5 · win34WFeb 1Feb 3 vs ORL · 28 min · 20 PTS · line 30.5 · loss20LFeb 3Feb 27 vs DEN · 34 min · 36 PTS · line 30.5 · win36WFeb 27Mar 1 @ DAL · 33 min · 30 PTS · line 30.5 · loss30LMar 1Mar 4 @ NYK · 35 min · 26 PTS · line 30.5 · loss26LMar 4Mar 7 vs GSW · 35 min · 27 PTS · line 30.5 · loss27LMar 7Mar 9 vs DEN · 39 min · 35 PTS · line 30.5 · win35WMar 9Mar 12 vs BOS · 39 min · 35 PTS · line 30.5 · win35WMar 12Line 30.5Proj 36.0
Observed (PTS) Selected line ProjectionW / L / P = over result vs line
Actual 20 PTS · miss

Graded against the stored box score after the game.

How it works

01

Define the prop

Select the player, scheduled event, market, line, side, and display window.

02

Run one analysis

Contender validates the request and builds a versioned, explainable result.

03

Inspect and preserve

Read the evidence, then save the immutable snapshot or add its leg to a draft.

Go deeper

01 / ProductOne prop, fully explainedSee the projection, history, matchup, probability, risks, and source data in one evidence-first view.02 / WorkflowFrom player to saved analysisFollow the six deliberate steps behind every run, including retry and unavailable states.03 / MethodologyKnow what each number meansSeparate projection, observed hit rates, matchup context, and uncalibrated probability estimates.04 / ParlaysRead the combined estimateExplore independence assumptions, dependence bounds, same-game flags, and failed-leg semantics.
  • Versioned stats.nba.com schedules and box scores.
  • Historical replays are labeled and graded against stored outcomes.
  • Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees or betting advice.

Start with the evidence

Three single-prop analyses a day on the free plan. No card required to begin.

Create a free account